May 6, 2025
Posted by Matt Scalena PREC.
Brought to you by Skytrain Condo Living, the Only Real Estate Platform Licensed by TransLink.
Summary
In a recent Vancouver Real Estate Podcast interview, Jon Bennest, Vice President of Product Development at Zonda Urban, revealed the most lucrative investment strategy for Metro Vancouver in 2025: targeting newly completed, unsold inventory (“standing inventory”). With approximately 4,000 unsold completed condo units across Metro Vancouver and another 2,600 expected to complete in the coming year, savvy buyers have an unprecedented opportunity to purchase brand-new properties at 20-30% below peak pricing. Burnaby and Richmond currently offer the highest concentration of these opportunities, with developers facing increasing pressure to sell these completed units as carrying costs mount.
Why Burnaby and Richmond Standing Inventory Is the #1 Investment Opportunity for 2025
The Metro Vancouver real estate market is experiencing a dramatic slowdown in pre-sales, creating a unique window of opportunity for savvy investors and homebuyers. With approximately 15,000 active pre-sale listings compared to just 2,000 quarterly sales, the market now sits at roughly 24 months of supply – a clear indicator of a buyer’s market in Metro Vancouver condos.
Jon Bennest of Zonda Urban highlighted that the most significant investment opportunity emerging from these conditions is what industry experts call “standing inventory” – newly completed but unsold condo units across Metro Vancouver. This represents a rare chance to purchase brand-new properties directly from developers who are increasingly motivated to sell.
“We define standing inventory as completed and unsold inventory in the market. And that’s significantly higher than what we’ve seen over the past 10 to 20 years,” Bennest explained during his Vancouver Real Estate Podcast interview. “If you are an end user and you are looking to get into the market and you want brand new and you don’t want something that’s older, that could be an arena where you could start to kind of play ball.”
Where to Find the Best Standing Inventory Deals in Metro Vancouver
The standing inventory opportunity isn’t evenly distributed across Metro Vancouver. According to Bennest’s market research at Zonda Urban, two primary locations offer the highest concentration of completed, unsold condo inventory:
Additional standing inventory opportunities can be found in:
- The Tri-Cities (Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody)
- Vancouver West Side
- Vancouver East Side
“In terms of pre-sale product and you’re looking to move into something right away versus something that is completing the next four to six years, the two markets that are seeing the most amount of standing inventory are Burnaby and Richmond,” Bennest noted.
20-30% Below Peak: Why Standing Inventory Units Offer Exceptional Value
What makes these standing inventory condos particularly attractive is the significant discount compared to peak market prices – potentially 20-30% below what similar units were selling for at market height.
For example, in Burnaby’s Brentwood neighborhood, developers were targeting $1,200-$1,400 per square foot at the market peak two to three years ago. Today, some of these completed but unsold units could be available at around $1,000 per square foot or even less – a substantial discount in Vancouver’s typically resilient market.
This price correction, combined with the ability to move in immediately rather than waiting years for completion, creates a compelling value proposition for both investors and end-users in Metro Vancouver real estate.
Limited Window: Why This Metro Vancouver Condo Opportunity Won’t Last
According to Bennest’s analysis, this window of opportunity is likely to remain open for only “the next year or 18 months.”
Several factors could trigger a market rebound:
- Interest Rate Decreases: Bennest believes the Metro Vancouver condo market could quickly rebound if interest rates drop by approximately 1%
- Supply Correction: Many pre-sale projects that haven’t reached sufficient sales levels may be pulled from the market, potentially reducing future supply by up to half
- Affordability Threshold: As prices adjust and interest rates potentially decrease, the market may reach a point where monthly mortgage payments become comparable to or lower than rents
“If we have an interest rate drop of 1%, we’re there. The market’s back. I think it’s back up and running in a good way,” Bennest predicted.
How to Find the Best Standing Inventory Deals in Burnaby and Richmond
Rather than focusing solely on specific neighborhoods, Bennest recommends a value-hunting approach throughout Burnaby and Richmond:
“In my success in previous situations of investing real estate in Metro Vancouver, it’s really just trying to uncover every single rock possible to see where, hey, look, this unit here is 100K price below what the market is for that particular unit,” he explained.
This approach involves comparing new standing inventory offerings against current market prices for comparable products and identifying significant discounts. The best opportunities may be found in completed high-rise projects where developers have substantial carrying costs and increasing motivation to sell. A good Realtor can help.
Secondary Opportunity: The “Goldilocks Zone” of Metro Vancouver Real Estate
While standing inventory in Burnaby and Richmond represents the primary opportunity, Bennest also identified a secondary investment strategy in what he calls the “Goldilocks zone” – specific types of pre-sale developments that continue to perform well despite challenging market conditions:
“The majority of the projects that have performed well over the past six months are in that Goldilocks zone. They’re primarily south of the Fraser, so locations like…there was a couple in Coquitlam, but the majority were in Surrey City Centre, Surrey, South Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford.”
These successful projects typically share five key characteristics:
- Smaller scale (under 200 units)
- Low-rise construction
- Wood-frame construction (more affordable than concrete)
- Shorter completion timelines (2-4 years versus 5-8 years for high-rises)
- Price points below $1,000 per square foot (typically $800-900 per square foot)
While this represents a viable alternative strategy, Bennest’s analysis clearly positions standing inventory in Burnaby and Richmond as the most compelling investment play for Metro Vancouver in 2025.
FAQ: Metro Vancouver Standing Inventory Investment Strategy
What exactly is “standing inventory” in Metro Vancouver real estate?
Standing inventory refers to brand-new, completed condo units that developers have finished building but haven’t yet sold to buyers. According to Zonda Urban’s data, there are currently about 4,000 such units across Metro Vancouver.
Where can I find the best standing inventory deals in Metro Vancouver for 2025?
Burnaby (particularly Brentwood and Metrotown areas) and Richmond currently have the highest concentration of standing inventory in Metro Vancouver, with additional opportunities in the Tri-Cities and parts of Vancouver.
How much discount can I expect when buying standing inventory in Burnaby?
In areas like Burnaby’s Brentwood, where peak pricing was $1,200-$1,400 per square foot, some standing inventory may now be available at around $1,000 per square foot or less – representing discounts of approximately 20-30% from peak prices.
Why is there so much standing inventory available in Metro Vancouver now?
The market has shifted from an investor-driven market to an end-user market, with investor participation dropping from approximately 50% to 25%. Combined with higher interest rates and economic uncertainty, this has resulted in unprecedented levels of unsold completed inventory in Metro Vancouver.
How long will this Metro Vancouver condo investment opportunity last?
Bennest suggests this standing inventory opportunity will likely remain available for “within the next year or 18 months” before market conditions potentially shift again, particularly if interest rates decrease significantly.
Is now a good time to buy pre-sale properties?
Bennest suggests that the next 12-18 months represent a window of opportunity before the market potentially rebounds, especially if interest rates drop by 1% or more.
What’s happening with pre-sale projects that aren’t selling well?
Projects that fail to reach approximately 60% pre-sales may be unable to secure construction financing. Bennest estimates that up to half of current pre-sale inventory could potentially be pulled from the market within the next 1-2 years if sales don’t improve.
How does Vancouver compare to other Canadian real estate markets?
The Vancouver market has performed “modestly well” compared to Toronto because it offers more diverse housing options. Toronto relies heavily on mega-projects (300-600 units) that depend on investors, while Vancouver has a variety of development types including smaller projects that appeal to end users.